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Politics - I apologize

Discussion in 'Hangout Lounge' started by cds1984, Oct 30, 2020.

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  1. Minimutly

    Minimutly Well-Known Member

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    One thing you can say about this pandemic - the correct path for least deaths is still not defined, who's to say that locking down and not doing routine treatments doesn't cost more lives? Maybe it just moves the demographic around?
     
  2. dkavanagh

    dkavanagh Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    My wife has a master in public health and is a nurse who's took an infectious disease course last winter (good timing, huh?). The stuff that the CDC and Fauci are saying works. Washing hands, wearing masks, social distancing. Being outdoors is better than indoors since this stuff can hang in the air for a long time. As we got more lax and temps dropped, we had more people gathering and in confined spaces, spread was going to happen.
    Please don't tell me that guidance was different last spring. Science evolves as information changes. New evidence should help us by teaching us and we should adjust our thinking accordingly.

    peace and stay safe everyone!
     
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  3. Rooster53

    Rooster53 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Just to add a little clarity since this discussion is in part a sharing of the USA and our democracy with our out of country friends.

    An ID in New York is required when registering

    https://vote.nyc/page/voter-id

    After that, your name is added to the precinct poll book so it's not like just any John Doe can just walk in and vote without an ID. Your name has to be in the poll book and you must sign (subject to penalty I suspect) if you are committing voter fraud. The signature is supposed to be verified or physical characteristics. I get what your saying if you signed on an electronic pad, as signatures do get really sloppy.

    https://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-campaigns/voter-verification-without-id-documents.aspx

    As noted in the above link there are quite of few states not requiring picture ID at the polling locations. It is a fine line between voter suppression and ensuring only legal votes are cast.

    Well some statistics on just how bad it has been to date, of coarse we know that the sources can be an issue, but here are two; The Heritage Foundation is a conservative think tank, and the Brennan Center is a liberal / progressive organization. Given the numbers presented, I would say are system has not been broken but is actually very good - perfection is likely not obtainable.

    https://www.heritage.org/voterfraud

    Heritage is not very good at linking sources and admits totals may not be a full list. That said, they report four for the entire state of New York in 2016 and 1298 USA cases overall covering all the way back to 1980 - more years than most of our XJ's :)

    https://www.brennancenter.org/sites.../Briefing_Memo_Debunking_Voter_Fraud_Myth.pdf

    An excerpt "The report reviewed elections that had been meticulously studied for voter fraud, and found incident rates between 0.0003 percent and 0.0025 percent" To do the math at worst case that is 175 cases of voter fraud in Pennsylvania with approximately 7 million voters

    As to exponentially worse the Georgia audit could be revealing, we will just have to wait and see.

    She conceded on Nov. 9th and did not request any recounts. The 3rd party candidate Jill Stein requested recounts in PA, MI, and WI. She was granted a recount in only WI, but even that was mostly a recalculation of the math and not a hand recount as was requested. Now not much doubt Hillary supporters and campaign staff placed some hope in that, but they had already considered it hopeless as they needed to turn 3 states - PA, MI, and WI.

    https://www.vox.com/policy-and-poli...566/jill-stein-presidential-recount-explained

    Yea, how about Gore - a true example of Murphy's Law in that smart people never thought with nearly 6 million votes the separation could only be 537 votes in the end. The sad issue from Gore's perspective is when the butterfly ballot (and other unscrupulous voting methods) is evaluated there is little doubt that Al Gore won the votes cast in the state of Florida, but he lost the votes counted. The good news from our perspective is that it was an awakening and indicated the need to improve the voting systems for both ease of voting and accountability.



    .
     
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  4. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    No it doesn't; in fact, it has exactly the opposite effect:

    http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=240661

    The only thing they are saying which is true is: wash your hands with soap and water, and do it somewhat regularly and religiously. Full stop. But there's no money to be made, no panic to be spread via that advice, so here we are.



    So are you saying that maybe "they" should start practicing it?........you know, looking at the data, reviewing the historical knowledge, "putting 2 + 2 together" to gain understanding from raw data, since raw data by itself is meaningless, i.e. the sun rises in the east and sets in the west....you can make a gorgillion of those observation without a single variance and yet still get the underlying mechanism absolutely wrong, especially if money and power are at stake; heck, you can even threaten imprisonment and death to actual scientists who refuse to go along with the false theories. But it's funny, you know: all those threats and re-assurances do absolutely zilch to change reality......



    This would be a great thing, especially if they had started doing it from the get-go, instead of slow-walking the analysis of "new evidence" and adjusting their "thinking" (perhaps that's a joke?) accordingly.



    Re: "voter fraud"...........perhaps a clarification of definitions is in order. The word "voter" fraud puts the onus ("blame") on individual people, on the "average Jane or Joe" doing something wrong or illegal, and I don't think that is the what is being discussed.....certainly that happens in some cases, but it is probably the exception rather than the norm, and is a small (almost infintesimal) part of the issue. I mentioned previous that fraud is both systemic and endemic in almost all aspects of modern----and in reviewing written history---thru large ancient societies, too. In all fields. Everywhere. From the top down, from the centers of political/governmental powers all the way down to individual, inter-personal relationships and activities. Endemic. Systemic. In every field that you care to analyze or review, and surprise, surprise.....the more money or power involved.....the more fraud there is, and the greater the efforts to ignore it, disguise it, or cover it up. Human beings are competitive, goal-seeking, and many of them are "win at any cost" type of creatures, and do not come anywhere close to the mythologized "I cannot tell a lie; I chopped down the cherry tree" type of character that is portrayed in popular culture. Just because you are popular, or on TV, or are wealthy, etc. doesn't mean that you are honest....there is no "halo" effect between any of those attributes. In other words, ACTIONS speak louder than words.

    Now, I realize that most people "know" or "understand" the above to be true, but applying it when passions are running high (when instead, logic, reason, and yes----rational analysis and science should predominate) is a tough row to hoe. It's akin to much of the advice given on these very forums when a member has a problems with their bike; the user is confused, frustrated, pissed, etc. and that is when the cold, calculating, experienced analysts steps in to offer dispassionate (un-emotional) guidance: have you checked the valve clearances? Have you made sure that the pilot circuits are clear? Have you performed a vacuum synch....and, it helps if you have a real understanding of what a "synch" really means, and don't let incorrect references ("carb" synch versus "engine" synch) guide you down the wrong path.

    One of the things that makes this forum so valuable (and held in such high regard by its members) is that no one is trying to "snowjob" or trick/fool/deceive anyone else. Certainly, there are occasions when "bad advice" is given, but that is typically due to error or inexperience or a mis-understanding. There is no endemic, systemic attempt to deceive.


    The Georgia re-count is a Chinese fire drill type of event; it will "prove" nothing. You have no idea just how corrupt the state of Georgia is in its politics. And as best that I can tell, it's one of the "cleaner" big cities in the country in that regard.


    Einstein.....who ushered in the great age of the END of science (but thru no fault or intent of his own).....was at least an honest man.....and that counts for more (in my book) than popularity, intellect, brilliance or status. For even in regards to his own work.....which showered him with accolades, fame, and fortune......he quickly pointed out that no amount of experimental results could ever prove his theories to be right, and to the contrary, all it would take is one single experiment to prove his theories wrong.

    Perhaps that is a good maxim ("not" the XJ kind) to keep in mind.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2020
  5. ManBot13

    ManBot13 Well-Known Member

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    And here comes the wall of text that makes a whole lot of claims with no evidence. That returns us to the FACT of no evidence of widespread voter fraud. Only thing anyone can come up with is few unrelated cases by individuals. Then “extrapolate exponentially.”

    “Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” Carl Sagan. If you’ve got it, I suggest you provide it to Giuliani so he can stop making a fool of himself and the whole Trump campaign.

    And for your COVID-19 link to another wall of text, I would trust the world’s premier infectious disease expert a lot more than Karl Denninger, an American technology businessman, finance blogger, and political activist, sometimes referred to as a founding member[1] of the Tea Party movement. Just like I’d trust Fauci over anyone on this site (unless Fauci works on XJs).
     
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  6. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    Well, the US Code is a wall of text, as is the Constitution, the USP, and I'll bet most other important documents fall under that observation. "Walls of text" seems to be used in an somewhat inappropriate manner in this context, and I'm not sure that I agree with that characterization fully.

    And what exactly is "extraordinary" about the claim that election fraud/interference/etc. exists? Didn't the last 4 years of conflict in this country more or less revolve around that very premise? Didn't Elizabeth Warren, Amy Kloubachar, and others (2 of the 3 being senators and presidential candidates) complain about the issues with voting machines (actually, their software and security procedures) as recently as 2019? Why yes, yes they did:

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/...minion-voting-machines-prior-to-2020-election


    Extraordinary evidence, laid bear (no text, video this time):




    No one has claimed Karl Denninger to be a premier infectious disease expert, but, perhaps you would like to refute some of the claims made----you know, the MESSAGE(S) in that wall of text----rather than the messenger? And for good measure, can you explain the Elon Musk results, and I'd also be interested to learn why Terry Mullis (the inventor of the PCR process) might also be someone who should not be trusted:

     
  7. dkavanagh

    dkavanagh Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I'm immediately suspect of what's happening in that video "if you believe in HIV". I didn't watch the 1st video. The second seemed to only address a bit about how the PCR process could produce results that could be misinterpreted. That says zero about how it's being used for detecting COVID-19 and even what viral load is sufficient to worry about in an individual.

    I think there's a difference between paranoia and scepticism. Be the later, always, not the former.
     
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  8. Rooster53

    Rooster53 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    First of all I have to agree with ManBot13 below, why would anyone buy this theory from someone who is totally non medical. I bet if we put you in a rocket and do a moonshot you wouldn't let him calculate speed and angle of return.

    And he has so much class, I am not certain this is his verbiage that can be found on the market ticker webpage but someone is sure lacking character - a screenshot so no it's not edited:

    upload_2020-11-14_17-59-57.png

    At the very beginning he speaks of pre-existing immunity with no reference. That's a non starter

    He pretends 4 rapid antigen test on Elon Musk is somehow a scientific study, which is total garbage. And then he is not even honest about it and he implies in the article the PCR test was the flawed source of testing. Musk did receive a PCR test afterwards, the outcome unknown at this time.

    He states a 10% error rate with a 10% positivity means errors of 0 to 20 % - isn't that funny math

    And this is just a quick read, the article is trash as far as I can tell. Oh, and on serology testing this is exactly where Birx and Fauci wanted to go, and there were all sorts of early tests that proved to be highly unreliable. For some reason Denninger thinks we abandoned this "gold standard" testing.

    Well it will help rule out the "Hammer Scorecard" you referenced in your earlier post where the claim is computer software is stealing votes from one candidate and giving them to the other. My mistake on not mentioning signatures when I made the statement as there will not be a re-verification of signatures on the absentee ballots. However, I haven't heard any complaints coming out of Georgia that canvassing those ballots wasn't done in a bipartisan fashion.
     
  9. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    Well, of course that video was from a long time ago (date unknown, but you can tell from the quality of the video), when there was a lot of dispute of the cause of HIV (which, to some extent, still exists today). PCR is akin to a manufacturing process, not a diagnostic tool, and has been noted in many places, by many people:

    "The technology relies on amplifying results many times over. If they are amplified less than about 35 times, no-one will test positive. If they are amplified 60 times, everyone will test positive. "

    Thus PCR testing AS A DISEASE CONFIRMATION PROCESS is sort of "dial a result" method, where the results can bee cranked up, or toned down, with only minor (and for the most part un-disclosed "dial settings"....reminding me of the old intro to the TV show "The Outer Limits":

    "Do not attempt to adjust the picture. We are controlling transmission. If we wish to make it louder, we will bring up the volume. If we wish to make it softer, we will tune it to a whisper. We will control the horizontal. We will control the vertical. We can roll the image, make it flutter. We can change the focus to a soft blur, or sharpen it to crystal clarity. For the next hour, sit quietly and we will control all that you see and hear. We repeat: There is nothing wrong with your television set. You are about to participate in a great adventure. You are about to experience the awe and mystery which reaches from the inner mind to... The Outer Limits."




    Very true!
     
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  10. k-moe

    k-moe Pie, Bacon, Bourbon. Moderator Premium Member

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  11. JPaganel

    JPaganel Well-Known Member

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    Dear god... Gratuitous bold, italic, and all caps...

    This is the online equivalent of something written in crayon on a notepad. I can't take this seriously. You'd think a finance blogger would be better at writing.

    Plus, I am somewhat biased against finance people right now. There is a very real chance that one of them is the reason my dad is currently in his third week of hospitalization with Covid.

    See, he was in this trading group with a bunch of guys like that. I've seen their FB conversations. "Masks don't work", "it's just a flu", "herd immunity". And they had meetups.


    Now, two things out of that scribble I would like to address:

    People seriously need to stop concentrating on that. Death is not the only negative consequence of it.

    My mom has recovered, but is barely walking and we are looking at remodeling the house so she can avoid the basement because she can't really do stairs. I have middle-aged fairly healthy friends who cant ride a bicycle any more, or do a lot of other stuff they could. Some have short term memory loss.

    Polio had a pretty low death rate, too. It's what happened to people who didn't die that made it a problem.

    So, this guy can take his idea of getting people infected to make them immune, fold it eight ways, and stick it where the sun don't shine.

    There is all the evidence they work. Surgeons have been wearing them for 193 years to prevent passing infections to patients. We know that works. The 1918 flu pandemic also shows they work. Claiming there is no evidence is absurd. It seriously is one of the most proven things in medicine.

    There is a simple test you can to at home. Talk at a clean mirror with a mask and without, and see how much spit collects on it.

    Thing is, they work if everyone wears them. And given the numbers of people I see who either don't wear them at all, or stick their noses out, or do something else stupid with them, it's definitely not the case.
     
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  12. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    You'd have to go back and read earlier articles, all of them referenced and/or verified, there is simply too much there to go back and regurgitate here.

    You know, I have to admit, I'm kinda "cheating" in this entire process (mainly because I'm sort of time-constrained in various ways) as I have the advantage of getting "one side of the story" easily; that is the standard explanations given seemingly everywhere, by everybody, on every news broadcast, ever newspaper article, etc. It's the counter-arguments and counter-explanations that don't make the light of day very often, and it is in those very counter-points where some truth may be found.....if that is of any interest. Einstein was a patent office CLERK, after all......I mean, what did he know about the nature of the universe?.....but at least he had the common sense and wisdom to recognize that "no amount of experimental results could ever prove his theories to be right, and to the contrary, all it would take is one single experiment to prove his theories wrong."

    P.S. PCR tests are what are used most commonly for testing, and are seemingly considered the "gold standard" around the world for diagnosis.....and it just might be wise to explore whether that type of testing is valid, whether it is useful / accurate in this type of environment, what are the drawbacks / downsides to reliance on that method, can it be compromised or the results be mis-interpreted? I think that is Skepticism 101, or, just basic scientific methodology. If you aren't interested in knowing about such things, then that's okay, but I'm a bit quirky in that regard, and think that important questions need serious (rather than emotional) answers.


    Oh contraire, Pierre!

    https://www.realclearinvestigations..._georgias_vote-counting_software__125995.html

    https://nationalfile.com/georgia-ex...ominion-voting-madness-leads-to-lame-recount/

    "Raffensperger, a Republican, said in announcing the recount, “This will help build confidence. It will be an audit, a recount and a re-canvas all at once.” He said all of the 159 counties in Georgia execute the hand recount and that it should be completed by the deadline for the state to certify the election results, November 20, 2020.

    But reports are coming out of vote tabulating centers that the recount effort is nothing more than a duplicate of the initial process which would effectively do little to audit the process.

    ....the Georgia recount is a farce. They are using one observer for ten teams, which means the observers are only able to watch 10% of the action. They aren’t checking signatures or matching absentee votes with addresses. Essentially, it is a pure recount that will re-tabulate the bad ballots.

    The management of Georgia elections has become an embarrassment for our state,” Perdue and Loeffler said in a statement. “We believe when there are failures, they need to be called out – even when it’s in your own party.”

    and

    https://www.news.com.au/world/north...g/news-story/19176f5113512210517c82debe684392

    “No one disputes that Fulton County elections officials falsely announced that the counting of ballots would stop at 10.30pm. No one disputes that Fulton County elected officials unlawfully resumed the counting of ballots after our observers left the centre.”
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2020
  13. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    Are you sure?

    https://www.technocracy.news/masks-are-neither-effective-nor-safe-a-summary-of-the-science/

    I'll save you the laborious reading:

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4480558

    "Statistical analysis of the extracted data revealed no statistically significant association between mask usage and the incidence of surgical site infection. The study concluded that ‘it is unclear whether the wearing of surgical facemasks by members of the surgical team has any impact on surgical wound infection rates for patients undergoing clean surgery".


    https://ajph.aphapublications.org/doi/pdf/10.2105/AJPH.10.1.34

    "This 1920 analysis of cloth mask use during the 1918 pandemic examines the failure of masks to impede or stop flu transmission at that time, and concluded that the number of layers of fabric required to prevent pathogen penetration would have required a suffocating number of layers, and could not be used for that reason, as well as the problem of leakage vents around the edges of cloth masks. "



    The New England Journal of Medicine editorial on the topic of mask use versus Covid-19 assesses the matter as follows:

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372

    “We know that wearing a mask outside health care facilities offers little, if any, protection from infection. Public health authorities define a significant exposure to Covid-19 as face-to-face contact within 6 feet with a patient with symptomatic Covid-19 that is sustained for at least a few minutes (and some say more than 10 minutes or even 20 minutes). The chance of catching Covid-19 from a passing interaction in a public space is therefore minimal. In many cases, the desire for widespread masking is a reflexive reaction to anxiety over the pandemic.”

    "It is also clear that masks serve symbolic roles. Masks are not only tools, they are also talismans that may help increase health care workers’ perceived sense of safety, well-being, and trust in their hospitals. Although such reactions may not be strictly logical, we are all subject to fear and anxiety, especially during times of crisis. One might argue that fear and anxiety are better countered with data and education than with a marginally beneficial mask, particularly in light of the worldwide mask shortage, but it is difficult to get clinicians to hear this message in the heat of the current crisis."


    It's the 21st century, and we're still counting on carrying (wearing) the modern equivalent of a "lucky rabbit's foot" as a method of disease management.
     
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2020
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  14. Rooster53

    Rooster53 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    J my thoughts and prayers that your dad fully recovers
     
  15. Rooster53

    Rooster53 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Thanks for posting an article that supports what I said, it is good we can agree:

    “It’s a good first step,” Favorito said. “A recount will be able to determine if there was electronic vote fraud.”

    Well now national rifle association, I love my guns but we know this is not a highly trusted source - surely you can do better

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/national-file/

    Just to note this excerpt from the NRA article since you quoted a good bit from it:

    Molly McCann, who is of counsel to Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn’s attorney Sidney Powell, tweeted out, “Attention, Georgia. The Georgia Republican leaders are selling us out."
    Sidney Powell is supporting the "Hammer Scorecard" vote counting theft that was disputed by and I will remind you by:

    Christopher C. Krebs is the first and current Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency in the United States Department of Homeland Security, serving since November 2018 appointed by President Trump. I am still waiting for you to reply to that subject, as you posted the video, I responded with what I thought was a factual post and .....crickets.

    Molly McCann was on Fox News with Martha MacCallum and promoted why we shouldn’t wear masks – I wonder with hind sight if they both regret encouraging people in that direction? More on that to follow.

    And also this text you quoted from the NRA article:

    Raffensperger, a Republican, said in announcing the recount, “This will help build confidence. It will be an audit, a recount and a re-canvas all at once.” He said all of the 159 counties in Georgia execute the hand recount and that it should be completed by the deadline for the state to certify the election results, November 20, 2020…..

    Reffensperger has suddenly become a never Trumper because it just can’t be true that Trump actually got less votes in Georgia.

    Oh, and then there is this:

    Donald J. Trump

    @realDonaldTrump

    ·

    Nov 26, 2018

    Brad Raffensperger will be a fantastic Secretary of State for Georgia - will work closely with

    @BrianKempGA

    . It is really important that you get out and vote for Brad - early voting....

    This link is even stranger when debating an issue. Now normally you wouldn't think someone would post something as supporting evidence of fact when the very article is linked with a fact check disputing the claims in the article.

    “In Georgia, a pipe burst in a far away location, totally unrelated to the location of what was happening and they stopped counting for four hours,” he said, in a claim that was disputed by fact checkers."

    Now I did hear one other issue on Georgia that I have not researched and it was suggesting a consensus agreement between Stacey Abrams and Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger with subject matter on how signatures would be observed. However, even with this let’s say signatures verification was loosely interpreted, it is still difficult to take the leap to massive voter fraud effecting thousands of votes. And hopefully it a common goal that we truly want each person to cast their vote.

    Wow, a real source, and you follow it up with text "the study concluded that it is unclear….. Seems to me they are saying they don't really know. Let's look a bit further and we find this from the same referenced link:

    "It is important not to construe an absence of evidence for effectiveness with evidence for the absence of effectiveness. While there is a lack of evidence supporting the effectiveness of facemasks, there is similarly a lack of evidence supporting their ineffectiveness. With the information currently available, it would be imprudent to recommend the removal of facemasks from surgery. Instead, in the medical field where common practice can so easily become dogma, it is necessary to recognise the constant need to maintain a healthy scepticism towards established beliefs and to periodically re-evaluate and critically assess their scientific merit."

    They clearly state again they don't know and do not recommend discontinuing their use. As far as Covid this article does not apply.

    Well, we can be sure the source falls into the tin foil hat and quackery category:

    https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/technocracy-news/

    And, a quick fact check on that source the very first sentence:

    “In this meta-analysis, face masks were found to have no detectable effect against transmission of viral infections. (1) It found: “Compared to no masks, there was no reduction of influenza-like illness cases or influenza for masks in the general population, nor in healthcare workers.”

    The first cited source (1) is misquoted and ignores the conclusion as well as disregarding the validity of the study stated by the author:

    Cited source 1 states:

    This article is a preprint and has not been peer-reviewed [what does this mean?]. It reports new medical research that has yet to be evaluated and so should not be used to guide clinical practice.

    “Based on observational evidence from the previous SARS epidemic included in the previous version of our Cochrane review we recommend the use of masks combined with other measures.”

    Probably other issues like this, but I don’t see any need to bother given the websites credentials.

    Another very respected source, however this is just more sloppiness on doing your homework or you are being deceived, or you are purposely trying to distort the facts – I would suspect and hope for the first. First the article you referenced is dated (May 21, 2020). Second, if you bothered to do a search you would find this later article (July 9, 2020):

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2020836

    "We therefore strongly support the calls of public health agencies for all people to wear masks when circumstances compel them to be within 6 ft of others for sustained periods."

    So another reminder:

    But don’t feel too bad, as Marth MacCallum ran the same story citing NEJM on Fox News on May 29th with guest speaker Molly McCann. Does that name sound familiar? Well yes she is quoted in the NRA article and suggesting “the Georgia leaders are selling us out.”
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2020
  16. JPaganel

    JPaganel Well-Known Member

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    Not a particularly trustworthy source. At any rate. They mostly claim that masks aren't 100% effective.

    Ok, fine.

    Even if it is 5% effective, no mask is 0%. 5>0. The math is simple and obvious.

    The bit on dangers of masks is a lot of cherrypicking horseshit. Healthcare workers, pregnant healthcare workers, patients with end-stage renal disease - none of these are valid points of comparison to an average person wearing a mask for a half hour when shopping. Healthcare workers wear them for 8-10-12 hours at a go. Pregnancy is not a concern for a whole lot of people. And if you have end-stage renal disease, you probably shouldn't be walking around anyway.


    Great, you found something to confirm your biases. Have you looked at the methodology of this study and what it actually is?

    They didn't do any testing. They just looked at results of previous studies. They didn't find evidence for or against, and that is why they specifically say it's unclear.


    1. Gauze masks exercise a certain amount of restraining influence on the number of bacteria-laden droplets possible of inhalation. 2. This influence ,is modified by the number of layers and fineness of mesh of the gauze. 3. When a sufficient degree of density in the mask is used to exercise a useful filtering influence, breathing is difficult and leakage takes place around the edge of the mask. 4. This leakage around the edges of the mask and the forcible aspiration of droplet laden air through the mask is sufficient to make the possible reduction in dosage of infection not more than 50 per cent effective.

    50>0.


    Also, even cheap modern masks are better than gauze. Gauze at this point is a last-ditch field expedient.

    Look at the date on that. May 21st.

    This was written when there was a shortage of PPE in hospitals, and when we didn't have the data accumulated between then and now.

    Right now, we see infection clusters from places like restaurants. You know, those passing interactions.

    "Not only tools" means they are tools. This doesn't say they are only talismans.

    Again, even 1% protection is more than 0%. I will take all the advantage I can get. Same as how a helmet is not a 100% guarantee, but a +X% to your chances of survival.

    Really, the parallels between mask and helmet arguments are rather obvious.

    You got a better one that isn't "just let people get sick and live with the consequences", go for it. There is probably a Nobel prize in it.
     
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  17. ManBot13

    ManBot13 Well-Known Member

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    To add what has already been said, what’s wrong with a reminder of the epidemic at hand? You can’t SEE COVID, so masks reminding you that social distancing is still vital, and giving you a heads up at who is lax about the guidance is helpful.

    COVID is not like a hurricane or earth quake, something you just endure, it is SPREAD by human behavior. Changing that behavior can reduce the spread. ALL that needs to happen is reducing the R0 below 1, and it’ll fade out. Masks reduce the chance of getting it during short term essential exposure (getting groceries, trash collection, etc) but yes it isn’t a panacea. Only social distancing will work at this point.

    mind you that medical professionals not having a 100% guarantee from masks is ALL the reason to social distance NOW. They will be exposed, doing their jobs regardless of the danger. Everyone else should try to make things better for them by reducing the prevalence of infection. A LOT of healthy, health care workers are getting sick and dying right now.
     
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  18. Rooster53

    Rooster53 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Totally agree and it's a metric that would be difficult to track. You can also view this three ways:

    1. The cure can’t be worse than the disease creating.......

    A - ... excess mitigation through lockdowns that produce excess unemployment

    B - ... theA reality that families, particularly the poor with minimal savings struggle to pay rent, put food on the table

    C - ... state governments that lose excessive income eventually leading to layoffs of essential services such as police, fire, first responders, and other essential workers

    D - ... federal deficits that rise out of control

    E - ... excess deaths that occur because of stresses caused by economic losses both on a personal level and infrastructure level


    Conversely

    2. The disease can’t be worse than the cure creating.......

    A - ... lack of mitigation overwhelming hospitals, healthcare staff, and first responders and forcing stay at home orders, or accepting the reality of forcing triage on health care staff to choose who lives or dies

    B - ... overwhelmed health care systems and staff that can no longer provide sufficient care to maintain adequate public health for non COVID patients

    C - ... public awareness of a large number of cases creating anxiety and stress as large groups practice self mitigation by staying at home

    D - ... circumstances for the poor to suffer the most as those in essential services that have no option but to continue to work and risk exposure of themselves and their families and who also have less healthcare options

    E - ...an economy that suffers dramatically as people self impose stay at home orders and don’t patronize public places

    F - ...excess deaths because of lack of mitigation as well as stresses caused by economic losses both on a personal level and infrastructure level

    So what is left, both situations are really unacceptable and it leaves us with what has been preached but not practiced here in the USA, much of which is because it has become a political issue, particularly on wearing a mask.

    3. Controlled mitigation using the best currently available tools until vaccines become available or better therapeutics

    A - Wash your hands often

    B - Practice social distancing avoiding large crowds particularly indoors - And even small gatherings at this time as the spread is virtually out of control

    C - Wear a mask when you can't maintain social distancing protocol

    - The evidence for wearing a mask is just overwhelming and is supported by the FDA, CDC, HHS, NIAID, Surgeon General and many other respected doctors and health care entities.

    And be thankful for the therapeutics developed to date and the dedication of our health care workers, both of which have significantly reduced the number of deaths.
     
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2020
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  19. k-moe

    k-moe Pie, Bacon, Bourbon. Moderator Premium Member

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    And so the comunity slowly begins to fracture.
    Not quite in the way that I expected, but still....
    Hands up for making this site a refuge from all things political. Send a PM to the boss, and let the cards fall where they may.
     
  20. chacal

    chacal Moderator Moderator Supporting Vendor Premium Member

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    I think it's a great discussion, I'm learning a lot of new things, Rooster53 has especially has been very helpful. Am I missing something, or is everyone else mad or ????
     
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